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Original Research
Breast Imaging
2026
:16;
5
doi:
10.25259/JCIS_188_2025

Papillary lesions of breast on core-needle biopsy: Factors associated with malignant upgrade on surgical excision

Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, China.
Author image

*Corresponding author: Ka Luen Hui, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, China. hkl770@ha.org.hk

Licence
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 License, which allows others to remix, transform, and build upon the work non-commercially, as long as the author is credited and the new creations are licensed under the identical terms.

How to cite this article: Hui KL, Wong WL, Chu KM, Wan FY, Lam LY. Papillary lesions of breast on core-needle biopsy: Factors associated with malignant upgrade on surgical excision. J Clin Imaging Sci. 2026;16:5. doi: 10.25259/JCIS_188_2025

Abstract

Objectives:

Papillary lesions (PLs) of the breast diagnosed on core-needle biopsy (CNB) pose a management dilemma due to their variable upgrade rates to malignancy. This study aims to identify predictors of malignant upgrade, facilitating risk stratification that may spare low-risk patients from unnecessary open surgery.

Material and Methods:

This retrospective study analyzed 219 CNB-diagnosed PLs in 172 female patients at a tertiary center from 2008 to 2022. Clinical parameters (age at diagnosis, single duct bloody nipple discharge, mastalgia), sonographic findings (multifocality, size, location, intraductal lesion, intralesional vascularity, margin, posterior features) and histopathologic findings (atypia) were analyzed with Fisher’s exact test and multivariate logistic regression.

Results:

The overall upgrade rate to malignancy was 8.2% (18/219). Four independent predictors of upgrade were identified: lesion size ≥1 cm (Odds ratio [OR] 3.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0–12.3; p = 0.045), intralesional vascularity (OR 7.0, 95% CI 2.2–22.5; p = 0.001), non-circumscribed margins (OR 6.4, 95% CI 1.5–27.7; p = 0.013), and atypia (OR 6.6, 95% CI 1.9–23.2; p = 0.003). Subcentimeter circumscribed lesions without atypia and vascularity had a 3.4% upgrade rate (3/88) and 96.6% negative predictive value.

Conclusion:

Lesion size ≥1 cm, presence of intralesional vascularity, non-circumscribed margins, and atypia on CNB specimens are significant predictors of malignant upgrade in patients with PLs on CNB. Low-risk lesions (subcentimeter circumscribed lesions without vascularity and atypia) may be managed with minimally invasive approaches (e.g., vacuum-assisted excision) given their low upgrade rate (3.4%) and high negative predictive value (96.6%), while high-risk lesions (particularly those with atypia) warrant surgical excision.

Keywords

Core needle biopsy
Intraductal papilloma
Malignant upgrade
Papillary breast lesions
Vacuum-assisted excision

INTRODUCTION

Papillary lesions (PLs) of the breast encompass a broad spectrum of pathologies, ranging from intraductal papillomas, papillomas with atypia to malignant lesions including papillary ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and encapsulated papillary carcinomas, solid papillary carcinomas, and invasive papillary carcinomas. They are characterized by the presence of finger-like projections (papillae), each of which is composed of a stromal core overlain by a layer of epithelial cells.[1-3] Due to their intralesional heterogeneity and malignant potential, PLs diagnosed in core-needle biopsy (CNB) are classified as lesions of uncertain malignant potential (B3 lesions) in the European guidelines.[4]

The reported rates of upgrading from PLs diagnosed in CNB to malignancy in subsequent surgical excision range from 0% to 29%,[5] with intraductal papillomas having a lower upgrade rate (<10%) than PLs with concomitant atypia, which have been reported to have upgrade rates as high as 36%.[4] Given the substantial upgrade rate, surgical excision is traditionally recommended for PLs diagnosed by CNB. However, there has been a trend of de-escalation in management for PLs without atypia, prioritizing minimally invasive approaches for low-risk cases while reserving surgery for high-risk lesions. Guideline proposed by the American Society of Breast Surgeons suggests observation with clinical and imaging follow-up for PLs without atypia.[6] While guidelines proposed by the UK and Europe suggest that PLs without atypia can be safely managed with vacuum-assisted excision (VAE), and if fully excised, imaging surveillance is sufficient. Surgical excision remains the standard of care for PLs with atypia due to their higher malignant potential.[4,6,7]

This study aims to identify factors associated with upgrade to malignancy in patients with PLs diagnosed on CNB, facilitating risk stratification that may spare low-risk patients from unnecessary open surgery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients

The medical records of female patients diagnosed with B3 PLs by ultrasound-guided CNB at our tertiary institute from January 2008 to December 2022 were retrieved and reviewed. From an initial cohort of 341 PLs diagnosed on CNB, we excluded 18 cases with synchronous malignancy, 45 cases with incomplete data (e.g., missing ultrasound imaging, clinical information, or final surgical pathology), and 59 non-surgical cases with <2 years of imaging or clinical follow-up. The final study cohort included 219 CNB-diagnosed PLs of the breast in 172 female patients (mean age of 53 ± 12 years, range 23–84), of which 166 PLs were managed with surgical excision, and the remaining 53 PLs were managed conservatively with at least 2 years of sonographic or clinical surveillance [Figure 1].

Diagram outlines the process for selecting eligible cases for analysis.
Figure 1:
Diagram outlines the process for selecting eligible cases for analysis.

Imaging studies and biopsies

Ultrasonography and ultrasound-guided CNBs were performed using high-resolution ultrasound units with 5–10-MHz or 5–12-MHz linear-array transducers. Biopsies were performed with either a disposable (Achieve, Merit Medical products) or a reusable (Magnum, BD products) 14-gauge single-action automatic core biopsy needle. Three tissue cores were routinely sampled from each lesion.

Data analysis

Potential variables were retrospectively reviewed, including clinical parameters (age at diagnosis, symptoms of single duct bloody nipple discharge, mastalgia), pre-operative sonographic imaging findings (multifocality, size, location, presence of intraductal lesion, intralesional vascularity, margin, posterior acoustic features), and histopathologic findings (atypia on CNB). The final pathology records after surgical excision were also reviewed. Lesions upgraded to in situ or invasive carcinoma after excision were considered malignant upgrades.

Based on the average age of menopause, the age cut-off value was set to 50 years. A lesion located ≤2 cm from the nipple was defined as a central lesion, and any location further away from the nipple was classified as a peripheral location. Lesion size was defined as the longest dimension of the lesion on preoperative ultrasound. Multifocality was considered positive in patients with more than one papillary lesion in the ipsilateral breast. Atypia was defined by the presence of atypical epithelial proliferation or atypical ductal hyperplasia within the papilloma. For PLs managed by surveillance rather than excision, benignity was confirmed either through 2 years of stable ultrasound follow-up, or by the absence of a breast cancer diagnosis in the institution’s medical record for at least 2 years.

Statistical analyses were performed using IBM Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Statistics Version 27.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). Fisher’s Exact Test, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the relationship between upgrading and other variables. The results were presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Among the 166 PLs that were excised, 18 of them were upgraded to malignancy, including eight DCIS, seven invasive ductal carcinomas, two encapsulated papillary carcinomas, and one invasive papillary carcinoma being diagnosed in the surgical excision. The overall upgrade rate is 8.2%.

Additionally, 53 cases were managed conservatively with at least 2 years of follow-up, with surveillance conducted either by ultrasound (n = 45) or clinical assessment (n = 8). None of the patients under surveillance exhibited significant lesion growth or malignant transformation during the ≥2-year follow-up period.

Table 1 shows the comparison of the clinical, sonographic and histopathologic characteristics of PLs upgraded to malignancy to those not upgraded. Comparison between the two groups identified four factors with statistical significance in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis identified four significant independent predictors of upgrade, including lesion size ≥1.0 cm (OR, 3.56; 95% CI 1.03–12.28; p = 0.045), intralesional vascularity (OR, 6.98; 95% CI 2.16–22.53; p = 0.001) [Figure 2a and b], non-circumscribed margin (OR, 6.41; 95% CI 1.48–27.71; p = 0.013) [Figure 3a and b], and presence of atypia in CNB sample (OR, 6.59; 95% CI 1.87–23.23; p = 0.003). Presence of these characteristics in PLs was associated with upgrade rates as high as 15.4%, 28.1%, 27.8%, 29.1% respectively. In our cohort, PLs without any of these three significant independent factors, i.e. subcentimeter circumscribed lesions without intralesional vascularity on color Doppler and no atypia on CNB, had an upgrade rate of 3.4% (3 of 88), and a negative predictive value of 96.6%. PLs with all four of these factors have a 100% upgrade rate (n = 1).

Table 1: Univariate and multivariate models of clinical, radiological and pathological characteristics on initial biopsy of papillary breast lesions with upgrading rate at surgery.
Characteristic Not upgrade (n=201) No. (%) Upgrade (n=18) No. (%) Univariate Multivariate
OR 95% CI p value OR 95% CI p value
Clinical
Age (year)
  Mean±SD 53.2±11.8 62.8±14.5 2.723 0.867–8.571 0.086
  <50 88 (43.8) 4 (22.2)
  ≥50 113 (56.2) 14 (77.8)
Mastalgia
  Negative 184 (91.5) 18 (100) / / 0.372
  Positive 17 (8.5) 0 (0)
Single duct bloody nipple discharge
  Negative 143 (71.1) 16 (88.9) 0.308 0.069-1.383 0.166
  Positive 58 (28.9) 2 (11.1)
Radiological
Lesion size (cm)
  Mean±SD 0.90±0.82 1.64±1.43 5.636 1.790-17.748 0.002 3.557 1.030-12.284 0.045
  <1.0 124 (61.7) 4 (22.2)
  ≥1.0 77 (38.3) 14 (77.8)
Location
  Central 110 (54.7) 11 (61.1) 0.769 0.287-2.065 0.632
  Peripheral 91 (45.3) 7 (38.9)
Multifocality
  Negative 126 (62.7) 9 (50) 1.680 0.639–4.419 0.318
  Positive 75 (37.3) 9 (50)
Presence of intraductal lesion
  Negative 144 (71.6) 14 (77.8) 0.722 0.228-2.286 0.785
  Positive 57 (28.4) 4 (22.2)
Presence of intralesional vascularity
  Negative 178 (88.6) 9 (50) 7.739 2.788-21.482 0.002 6.980 2.163-22.531 0.001
  Positive 23 (11.4) 9 (50)
Margin
  Circumscribed 188 (93.5) 13 (72.2) 5.562 1.718–18.004 0.009 6.407 1.481–27.709 0.013
  Non-circumscribed 13 (6.5) 5 (27.8)
Posterior acoustic enhancement
  Negative 183 (91.0) 18 (100) / / 0.373
  Positive 18 (9.0) 0 (0)
Posterior acoustic shadow
  Negative 200 (99.5) 18 (100) / / 1
  Positive 1 (0.5) 0 (0)
Pathological
Presence of atypia on CNB
  Negative 184 (91.5) 11 (61.1) 6.888 2.363-20.080 0.001 6.591 1.870-23.228 0.003
  Positive 17 (8.5) 7 (38.9)

OR: Odds ratio; CI: Confidence interval, SD: Standard deviation, CNB: Core needle biopsy, Significance threshold: p< 0.05

(a) A 83-year-old female with palpable left breast mass. Intralesional vascularity was demonstrated by color Doppler ultrasound (white arrow). It was diagnosed as papillary lesion on core-needle biopsy and confirmed to be encapsulated papillary carcinoma after surgical excision. (b) A 64-year-old female with spontaneous bloody discharge from right nipple. Internal vascularity was shown on colour Doppler ultrasound (white arrow). Core needle biopsy revealed intraductal papilloma, which was upgraded to invasive papillary carcinoma on excision.
Figure 2:
(a) A 83-year-old female with palpable left breast mass. Intralesional vascularity was demonstrated by color Doppler ultrasound (white arrow). It was diagnosed as papillary lesion on core-needle biopsy and confirmed to be encapsulated papillary carcinoma after surgical excision. (b) A 64-year-old female with spontaneous bloody discharge from right nipple. Internal vascularity was shown on colour Doppler ultrasound (white arrow). Core needle biopsy revealed intraductal papilloma, which was upgraded to invasive papillary carcinoma on excision.
(a) An 83-year-old female with a palpable left breast mass. Ultrasound of the left breast showed an irregular hypoechoic mass with an angulated margin (white arrow). It was diagnosed as a papillary lesion on core-needle biopsy and confirmed to be encapsulated papillary carcinoma after surgical excision. (b) A 57-year-old female with bloody right nipple discharge. Ultrasound of the right breast in radial view showed an irregular hypoechoic mass with microlobulated margin (white arrow), closely related to a dilated duct (dashed white arrow). Core needle biopsy revealed intraductal papilloma with atypia, which was upgraded to ductal carcinoma in situ on excision.
Figure 3:
(a) An 83-year-old female with a palpable left breast mass. Ultrasound of the left breast showed an irregular hypoechoic mass with an angulated margin (white arrow). It was diagnosed as a papillary lesion on core-needle biopsy and confirmed to be encapsulated papillary carcinoma after surgical excision. (b) A 57-year-old female with bloody right nipple discharge. Ultrasound of the right breast in radial view showed an irregular hypoechoic mass with microlobulated margin (white arrow), closely related to a dilated duct (dashed white arrow). Core needle biopsy revealed intraductal papilloma with atypia, which was upgraded to ductal carcinoma in situ on excision.

The mean age at diagnosis in the upgrade group was 62.8 ± 14.5 years, approximately 10 years older than the mean age of the non-upgrade group. However, age is not a significant predictor of upgrade in univariate analysis (p = 0.086). Other factors, including the presence of mastalgia, single duct bloody discharge; lesion location; sonographic findings of multifocality, intraductal lesion, posterior acoustic enhancement or shadowing, were also not shown to be associated with malignant upgrade of PLs in our results.

DISCUSSION

The management of PLs of the breast diagnosed in CNB remains a clinical challenge due to their heterogeneous nature and the highly variable potential of malignant upgrade. The overall upgrade rate of 8.2% (18/219) in this cohort is comparable to the literature, ranging from 0% to 29%.[5,8-12]

Many studies have been performed to identify clinical and radiological factors that can stratify the likelihood of upgrade to malignancy in PLs diagnosed in CNB, yet results remain inconsistent. Larger lesion size, older age of patients, symptomatic lesions, peripheral location >5cm distance from the nipple, concomitant calcifications, multiple lesions, vascularity and high Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System category have been shown to be predictors of upgrade in previous studies.[4,5,8-10] In this cohort, the upgrade rates were significantly higher in PLs with sonographic findings of lesion size >1 cm, intralesional vascularity or non-circumscribed margins, aligning with some of the previous studies.

The significance of vascularity as a predictor of malignancy remains controversial.[8,18,19] We observed the presence of intralesional vascularity in 14.6% (32/219) of intraductal papillomas, with 28.1% (9/32) upgraded to malignancy upon excision. This observation may be partly attributed to the sonographic characteristics of papillomas and neoangiogenesis in malignancy.[18,19] On ultrasound, papillomas typically show vascular pedicles within the central core with branching vessels arborizing within the mass.[8,20]

PLs with atypia on CNB have been consistently shown to be associated with a higher risk of malignancy in PLs. Intraductal papillomas without atypia have a lower upgrade rate of 1–9% compared to lesions with concomitant atypia, of which the upgrade rate could be as high as 38% with a median of 26.9%.[16,21] Our data showed upgrade rates of PLs with and without atypia were 29.2% (7 of 24) and 5.6% (11 of 195), respectively, which are comparable to those from the previous studies.[5,12] In addition, reported risk of subsequent breast cancer is 5–7 times higher in patients with PLs with atypia compared to the normal population.[4,9,14,15] Due to this high malignant potential, surgical excision is a well-established clinical management of PLs with atypia and is supported by guidelines in UK, Europe, and America.[4,6,7] This underscores the importance of surgical excision for PLs with atypia to rule out malignancy.

For PLs without atypia, there has been a trend of de-escalation in management. Guideline proposed by the American Society of Breast Surgeons suggests observation with clinical and imaging follow up for PLs without atypia.[6] While guidelines proposed by UK and Europe suggest PLs without atypia can be safely managed with VAE, and if fully excised, imaging surveillance is sufficient.[4,7] The observed upgrade rate was 3.4% (3 of 88) for PLs lacking all identified risk factors, with a negative predictive value of 96.6%. The upgrade rate is below the upper risk limit proposed by the Third International Consensus Conference (2023) of 5% for invasive carcinoma and 10% for DCIS in order to refer to radiologic surveillance.[22] Notably, none of the patients under surveillance exhibited significant lesion growth or malignant transformation during the ≥2-year follow-up period, which is also consistent with literature.[13,23] Therefore, minimally invasive management, such as VAE, can be considered for subcentimeter circumscribed PLs without vascularity and atypia.

VAE has been recommended as a cost-effective alternative to surgical excision for managing B3 lesions including PLs without atypia, as well as classical lobular neoplasia, radial scar and flat epithelial atypia.[4,7] VAE utilizes a vacuum-powered device to remove larger volumes of tissue compared to standard CNB, allowing more representative tissue sampling or even complete removal of the lesion. The success rate of VAE in the literature is consistently high with an overall success rate of 97–100%, with effective complete lesion removal, low rates of residual/recurrent disease and excellent cosmetic outcomes.[24-28] Choi et al. found a low rate of upgrade (2.1%, 5 of 233), residual (0.9%, 2 of 228) and recurrence (3.6%, 6 of 166) in the PLs managed with ultrasound-guided directional VAE, with the recurrent lesions proven benign after surgical excision.[27] Similarly, Yi et al. reported no recurrence in 136 solitary intraductal papillomas excised using an 8-gauge Mammotome system.[28] A local study in Hong Kong by Chau et al. further supported these findings, reporting a 97.2% success rate in complete lesion removal using ultrasound-guided VAE for PLs of smaller than 2.2 cm, with no major complications and a low cancer upgrade rate of 5.3%.[24] These studies collectively support the use of VAE as a safe and effective alternative to surgical excision for management of PLs. In addition, VAE can be performed as an outpatient procedure, allowing patients to be discharged on the same day, which significantly reduces healthcare costs compared to surgical excision.

There were several limitations in this study. This study was a retrospective study conducted at a single tertiary institution, which may limit the generalizability of the findings. In addition, the decision to excise or follow-up PLs could be influenced by lesion factors, patient and clinician preference, which may have introduced selection bias. Furthermore, the relatively small number of upgraded cases (n = 18) limits the power of the statistical analysis and the ability to perform more detailed subgroup analyses. Further validation through a prospective, multi-institutional study with a larger cohort is needed to confirm these findings and refine the risk-stratification model before broader clinical adoption.

CONCLUSION

Lesion size ≥1 cm, intralesional vascularity, non-circumscribed margins, and presence of atypia on CNB specimens are identified as independent predictors of malignant upgrade in PLs. These factors can be used to stratify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups, guiding the decision between surgical excision and minimally invasive management. VAE can be considered for low-risk PLs (subcentimeter circumscribed lesions without intralesional vascularity or atypia), given the low upgrade rate of 3.4% and high negative predictive value of 96.6%. However, surgical excision remains the standard of care for high-risk PLs, particularly for those with atypia, due to their high malignant potential.

Ethical approval:

The research/study was approved by the Institutional Review Board at the Central Institutional Review Board of Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, number CIRB-2025-176-4, dated June 13, 2025.

Declaration of patient consent:

Patient’s consent is not required as patients identity is not disclosed or compromised.

Conflicts of interest:

There are no conflicts of interest.

Use of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted technology for manuscript preparation:

The authors confirm that there was no use of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted technology for assisting in the writing or editing of the manuscript and no images were manipulated using AI.

Financial support and sponsorship: Nil.

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